I keep watching the $100 level in Ethereum, as if somehow it matters. And maybe it does. I remember years ago reading a stat about equities and pardon me for not remembering the exact details. The gist of it was this: when a stock that traded above the price of, say, $10 or $20 subsequently fell below $1, the odds of that stock going to zero were like 99%.
When this happens, often a couple phenomena are in play: the company’s going out of business, it’s broke, the market is sending a message equity owners are about to get about wiped out, fraud, litigation or sometimes the perfect storm: all of the above. I remember buying Delta stock at 10 cents; it seemed cheap. My UBS broker: “You know it’s going to zero, right?” He was right.
Here today in cryptos we see both Ethereum & Bitcoin Cash flirting with the $100 mark; Litecoin plunged below the buck a few weeks back and is now trading sub-$30. Obviously, these comparisons are specious & sure some will say unproductive. But you gotta keep an open mind: stocks can go to zero, it happens all the time. Hundreds of alt-coins this year have already shared that ignoble status so it stands to reason others will, too. Which ones? I can’t tell you because I don’t know. Mr. Market is trying to send us a message; I wish I knew what it meant.